
Introduction
Will eating animal meat ever become the new smoking? The list of disadvantages of meat consumption is easy to fill: whether you look at the effects on the climate, the environment or even public health, it is hard to defend a diet which includes meat. Even more questionable however, is the fact that animals get slaughtered for consumption on a massive scale: 80 billion per year globally. In addition, the majority of antibiotics which are produced worldwide are not used to cure humans, but to prevent diseases on animal farms. With regard to the impact on the climate, the European agricultural sector is responsible for 10% of the total EU-wide emissions, an amount which is largely formed by livestock, making animal farms responsible for the lion’s share of the agricultural emissions (EEB, 2020). Ruminant animals like cows emit methane, a greenhouse-gas (GHG) with a relatively strong impact on global warming. In addition, we have environmental problems due to intensive farming practices, being one of the causes of the nitrogen crisis in some European states. Lastly, there are the human health impacts: the consumption of processed meat for example, is classified by the International Agency for Research on Cancer as “carcinogenic for humans” (IARC, 2015).
All of these facts are relatively well known, but how much meat do we consume? In 2018, the average European consumed 69.5 kg of meat per year (Guyomard et al. 2021, p. 4). This is higher than the global average and unsustainable with regard to the effects mentioned above. In this article, I want to discuss the different measures the EU has at its disposition to influence consumer- and farming practices. First, I will look to the consumer side. Can our meat consumption be reduced even without interventions? Second, when moving to the production side, I will describe the new measures which are part of the future Common Agricultural Policy, the EU’s flagship policy for the agricultural sector. Can these measures help reduce the impact of meat production on the climate? Third, I want to discuss a last option: could it be viable to continue with our livestock (or pastoral) farming practices, by taking emissions out of the air?
Actual consumption & production
First: are people capable of changing their diets by themselves, without government intervention? As a recent survey pointed out, people in the EU indicate a personal motivation to decrease animal products in their daily diets. The study, undertaken under the Smart Protein project by the organisation ProVeg and funded by the EU, shows that for instance the individual interest in plant based foods is rising (ProVeg, 2021). The sales value of this sector has increased with as much as 49% in the past two years (EVU, 2021). Plant based foods are not the only alternative for eating meat from animals; cultivated meat which can be produced in laboratories is entering the market as well. When imitating cellular processes in a controlled environment, meat can be developed at high efficiency.
This is all good news – but only if the consumption of animal products drops at the same time. When we look at the expected European meat consumption in 2030 for instance, compared to 2020 our consumption will only be reduced slightly. In 2030, Europeans are expected to consume 67.6 kg of meat, compared to the earlier mentioned 69,5 kg per year. (EC, 2020, p. 36). As shown in figure 1 below, taken from the European Commission’s ‘outlook for the agricultural sector’ for the next ten years, we can see that for some meat sectors (such as the poultry and the sheep meat sector), the consumption levels are expected to grow. Even more striking is the fact that the EU is a net exporter when it comes to the production of beef, pig and poultry meat (idem, p. 31-33). In Europe, we therefore produce more meat than we consume, although we still import meat from other countries outside Europe. In 2021, the amount of the EU’s beef production was 6,800 million kilograms – equalling a staggering amount of 23 million animals which were slaughtered in that year (Eurostat, 2022).

To come back to the results of the ProVeg survey, they are surely interesting, and they are showing an optimistic foresight when it comes to the future of animal product consumption. However, still the majority of 61% of the respondents of the survey indicates to be a omnivore (i.e. eating meat frequently) (ProVeg, 2021, p. 10). In addition, there is reason to be sceptical, because the survey measures the self- reported future behaviour of the respondents, and does not entail direct observations. To indicate that you would like to reduce your meat consumption might be socially desirable, but not necessarily true. Consumer behaviour remains difficult to change as people are situated in their cultural environments and are prone to habits. Eating less meat can therefore be a pledge which falls all to quickly into other ‘new year’s resolutions’.
Price interventions
In the policy toolbox of governments to reduce the consumption levels of specific goods, an obvious possibility is to increase prices. As noted in the ProVeg study, plant-based foods are often more expensive than animal-based foods – which can be a crucial point for consumers to make the switch for a vegetarian diet (2021, p. 9). When buying meat is getting more expensive, the daily choice for consumers in the supermarket for plant-based alternatives will be a lot easier. Like cigarettes in most European countries, meat could be ‘taxed’ out. A first problem however, is the fact that the EU legislator is not competent to undertake policies for the taxation of animal products. Eventual price increases of meat are introduced by the Member States (MS) individually, and are therefore less effective. Regulating the production of animal products in Europe however, is subject to EU regulations (Guyomard et al., 2021, p. 5). Second, a difficulty for a policy that increases European prices on meat, is that the import of cheaper meat from third-countries could rise. European consumption would therefore remain more or less at the same level as before the introduction of the price increase. The risk of a higher import of cheap meat can be alleviated when keeping the current import tariffs at EU level high. For dairy products and meat, the actual Most Favoured Nations tariffs are actually already among the highest compared to other products (Guyomard et al., 2021, p. 5). Another possibility to ensure a ‘level playing field’ between European and non- European meat producers, is given by the recently proposed ‘Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism’ (CBAM). This policy, announced by the Commission in 2021, aims at setting a levy for carbon-intensive products imported from outside the European Union. In that way, the risk of ‘carbon leakage’ is to be avoided, when EU producers shift their production abroad where less stringent and less costly climate policies are in place. To be sure, the Commission’s proposal currently only covers sectors like aluminium and cement (Commission, 2021). Including the meat sector in the CBAM would increase the price of imported meat based on its carbon emissions, thereby equalling the price of meat produced in Europe. Although the CBAM is currently passing the ‘legal pipeline’ (the Council of the EU for instance has recently agreed on its adoption), it will take time before a carbon levy at the European borders will be effectively installed (especially when taking into account the eventual inclusion of the meat sector). Luckily, there is a well-known policy at the European level which can make a great difference with regard to the meat production on a shorter term scale.
The EU policy for agricultural products: the CAP
The Common Agricultural Policy (CAP) is the best example of the EU’s influence on the production side of the EU’s agricultural sector, regulating for instance the supply of livestock at European farms. As the CAP has recently been reformed, and will enter into force in 2023, the time to follow the new measures which could reduce the consumption of animal products is now. Before discussing the new reforms, it is important to describe the development of the CAP. The CAP was founded in 1962, and it was introduced to ensure and to boost agricultural production in Europe. After the seventies and eighties, which entailed overproduction of certain agricultural commodities like milk, in 1992 the CAP evolved from a policy of ‘product support’ to ‘producer support’ under the so-called MacSharry reforms. Currently, the CAP is constituted of two large pillars: one composed of EU funding, one of funding coming from the Member States. The direct income support for farmers comes from the first pillar, often in the form of subsidies, while the second pillar is designed to develop rural areas in the EU. One of the main critiques of the current CAP is that the direct income support measures are favouring farmers with larger farms; the larger the size of the farm, the larger the amounts of financial aid the farmer could receive (Guyomard et al., 2021, p. 5). This obviously incites farmers to take more livestock. As mentioned, more livestock is directly linked to increasing emissions. The CAP is therefore currently opposing to the ambitions which are recently announced in the ‘European Green Deal’, where the European Commission has announced the ambition to decrease the European GHG emissions by 55% in 2030 compared to 1990 levels. The objectives of the new CAP however, should be contributing to the climate and environmental ambitions of the Green Deal.
One of the large reforms which is expected to align the new CAP with the Green Deal’s objectives, are the introduction of ‘eco-schemes’. These are direct and yearly payments for farmers using environmental friendly methods. From the total budget of the future CAP’s first pillar, 22% should be dedicated to these payments. After the implementation of the new CAP in 2023, the EU Member States will implement the eco-schemes in another large reform of the CAP: the National Strategic Plans (NSP`s). In essence, these NSP’s will consist of how Member States will answer to the CAP’s objectives. The introduction of those plans will allow the Member States more room for manoeuvre; they will be given greater ‘subsidiarity’ in the EU’s agricultural policy. NSP’s can for instance indicate which environmental practices (such as planting more trees on farms) will be rewarded by the eco-schemes, or which specific national agricultural sectors should be prioritised. With the deadline being passed on December 2021, much countries have already submitted their NSP`s, and are waiting for recommendations of the European Commission later this year. The influence of the Commission appears to be resting rather weak however; they are not expected to refuse any NSP, but will only make some suggestions for adjusting them. Despite the limited role of the Commission, it is not a certainty that the NSP’s will be in accordance with the European Green Deal objectives. France for example has received already shortly after its publication of their NSP, disapprovement of the Green Members of the European Parliament, based on concerns of alignment with the Green Deal (Pistorius, 2022). In an assessment report to qualify more draft NSP`s, which were submitted in November 2021, several environmental organisations have found that a large number of the national proposed eco-schemes also fall short of the European environmental objectives (Nyssens et al., 2021, p. 3). The most effective medicine to reduce agricultural GHG emissions for example, reducing the livestock size of farms, seems to be largely ignored by the European countries in their announced plans. Besides financial support for farmers, a possible measure to succeed in a reduction of livestock size is to include a conditionality for farmers with regard to animal density. Every farm could for instance, based on its available agricultural area, receive a maximum of 2 ‘Livestock Units’ (LU) per hectare (Climate Action Network, 2021, p. 15).
CCS to the rescue?
Besides the measures included in the new CAP, the European Commission also follows another possible strategy to make the agricultural sector more climate friendly. In a recently announced Communication they are including the possibility of Carbon Capture and Storage (CCS) at farm level (Commission, 2021). CCS focuses not on reducing the GHG`s emissions, but at taking emissions out of the air. Under the so-called ‘carbon farming’- initiative, farmers should be incited (following the logic of the ETS system), to capture carbon on their lands. This can be done by improving the management of their land, for instance by planting trees and the restoration of peatlands. The idea is that the sequestration of carbon will become profitable; besides normal agricultural products farmers could now also sell carbon farming credits. The target for 2030 is to have a carbon uptake of -310 Mt CO2 eq. (Commission, 2021, p. 3).
Although the Commission clearly states that the carbon farming practices are only complementary to the mitigation efforts of the EU, the question remains whether this is the most efficient sustainable policy for the agricultural sector. First, carbon uptake and emissions of soils are relatively difficult to estimate; soil emissions might be greater than reported, thereby making the target for 2030 too low (Boot, 2021, p.18). Second, although reforestation is a great tool to capture carbon, trees always have the risk of being incinerated by fires, especially in a warmer climate. This would release the carbon and delete the carbon uptake to zero. Finally, an often reiterated critique for CCS solutions is that it has the potential to divert the focus on mitigation efforts. With regard to agricultural practices, CCS would not incite changes to the current way of keeping livestock. In addition, CSS aims at the negative climate effects of animal farms, but it is not a solution for the environmental and animal welfare problems.
Conclusion
The current intensive and large-scale way of farming with livestock is not in line with the European climate ambitions, and has several other negative effects on the environment, not to forget the slaughtering of the animal themselves. As European consumption regulations are legally speaking much weaker than production regulations, changes to decrease our meat consumption should be made on the supply, rather than the demand side. Although there are several policy proposals at the EU level capable of reducing emissions from the agricultural sector, such as CSS or the CBAM, it seems clear that the most effective way forward is to reduce the livestock size of European farms. Being part of the new Common Agricultural Policy for 2023, the introduction of the eco-schemes are a perfect opportunity to motivate farmers financially to reduce their herd size. Such measures should therefore be included in the NSP’s, before the Commission’s approval in June this year. Although we Europeans might become nostalgic to the pastoral farming practices and the scenic of cows in the meadows, the negative side of our current meat consumption is too large to ignore.
by Tim Draijer
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